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United Airlines SNAFU
April 21, 2017 – 3:00PM
Written by: Captain David Koch
United Airlines SNAFU – A Former Pilot’s Take
As the echoes from the United Airlines passenger-abuse debacle continue to reverberate around cyberspace, I keep thinking about how something so shocking and abhorrent could come about. My analysis of the situation is cast in the context of how all aviation accidents and incidents happen. They are the result of a series of events. I was taught to look at things this way by, of all folks, United Airlines. I was a pilot for United for over 22 years (1968 – 1990). We call these series of events “error chains”. Usually, an accident has at least 5 links in its error chain. Let’s see how many we can identify in the error chain that resulted in the forcible removal at 69-year-old doctor from a United flight.
Link #1:
The flight was oversold. While most of us weren’t paying attention, the U.S. airline system became an oligopoly controlled by four airlines (Southwest, Delta, American and United). They now collectively own 69% of the U.S. airline market (Statista).
And their goal appears to be to reach and maintain an average load factor of 100%. They’re getting there. In 2016, the average load factor for U.S. airlines was 82%. Compare that to the pre-deregulation (1980) average load factor of around 70%. In fact, when I entered the airline industry back in the 1960s, it was accepted wisdom to plan for a 70% average load factor. The 70% average load factor persisted for at least 20 years after deregulation.
Obviously, the higher the average load factor is, the more oversold flights there are. And the airlines have no problem selling you a seat that you may not get on because they are all about maximizing revenues with little concern for passenger satisfaction.
Link #2:
The last-minute decision to accommodate 4 deadheading United crew members This required the removal of 4 additional passengers from the already oversold flight. Here again, the basis for that decision was in all likelihood an economic consideration that accrued to United’s benefit. United was more than willing to pay the 4 passengers that needed to be removed from the flight with their “funny money” vouchers in return for getting the crew to where they needed to be to fly another high-load-factor flight (or several). Once again, United put their bottom line ahead of their customers’ satisfaction.
Link #3:
Unclear corporate guidance. United’s CEO Oscar Munoz has already admitted that this was a link in the error chain.
Link #4:
I haven’t heard anything about the front-line manager(s) who called in the security forces, but you can bet that they are trained (informally, formally or both) to call security if they have to forcibly remove a passenger from an overbooked flight. That decision is a critical link in the error chain. If the manager(s) had decided to offer potential volunteers more UAL script or real money, perhaps there would have been 4 willing volunteers who would have relinquished their seats to the United crew members.
Link #5:
Clearly, Dr. David Dao, the unfortunate passenger, must have been extremely agitated by the time the security guards showed up. I can only imagine the pressure he was under from the United customer-service reps to get off the airplane, and the indignity he was probably feeling from being placed in that position by United Airlines. After all, he had paid for his ticket, made a reservation, boarded the flight and was, I’m sure, looking forward to minding his own business and getting home. I think there is little doubt that Dr. Dao was primed for resisting the security guards’ admonitions to get off the airplane.
Link#6:
It is my understanding that the Chicago Department of Aviation security officers are trained to use force on any passenger who resists a direct order from them. The stage was set when this last link in the error chain fell into place. All it took was an aggressive security guard and an upset passenger who more than likely thought that his right to travel was being curtailed.
Let’s hope that United’s after-action analysis of this very negative aviation incident leads to fewer confrontations between airline passengers and airport security forces. In aviation, we always try to learn from our mistakes.
We have learned from the constant and comprehensive analysis of aviation accidents and incidents that if we remove any of the links in an error chain, the accident or incident will be avoided. When you’re flying on AirChicago, you will never encounter this particular error chain because AirChicago flights are never overbooked. So, the first link in the error chain has been removed.
By the way, if you don’t know what SNAFU stands for, ask your grandfather or anyone who has been in the military.
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